Muhammad Tariq Waseem is a former Chief Economist of Punjab Industrial Development Board.
There is not a single
instance, example or precedent in the economic history of the world that a
country like Pakistan goes on to become a progressive, prosperous and developed
country in a reasonable period of few decades which faces multiple kinds of
problems, issues, obstacles and challenges - some inherent, some inbuilt, some
acquired and some God-sent.
Different political,
economic, social, religious and geographical grounds make Pakistan a unique and
unrivalled case and make it very unlikely to travel on the fast lane of the
development motorway in the foreseeable future as elaborated below, point-wise,
not necessarily in order of their importance or sequence, through different
angles, observations, reasons, analysis, statistical data and national and
international surveys:
1. Pakistan has been
in a continuous state of confrontation with a very powerful and enemy neighbour,
India, for decades. India has a population which is 6 times of Pakistan and
around 1 billion more than Pakistan. India is considered to be 5th most
powerful country in the world, 2nd in the case of population, 4th in terms of
defence capability and 7th in respect of economic strength, and will be 3rd largest
economy of the world by 2014. Its annual GDP growth rate is about 2-3 times
higher than Pakistan. As a result of conflict with a mighty neighbour, our
defence budget eats substantial share of our limited resources. India can
afford confrontation with a smaller, less powerful neighbour without adversely
affecting its development speed whereas Pakistan cannot and should not to the
maximum extent till the time we are strong, prosperous and developed enough
that this confrontation does not harm our economic
growth rate. To have enmity with more powerful neighbour, with or without solid
reasons, has in any case adverse consequences.
2. War torn, poor,
savage, uncivilised, wild and illiterate neighbour, Afghanistan, continues to
spill over it problems to Pakistan such as free inflow of arms, terrorism,
about 2 million Afghan refugees and the Afghanis visa free entry into Pakistan,
who attack Pakistan border posts and kidnap Pakistanis for ransom and return to
Afghanistan, etc. There is no country in the world facing so many problems from
such a neighbour. In nutshell, Afghanistan appears to be a worse neighbour than
India.
3. Easy availability
of weapons and ammunitions, even on small rent, in the country promotes
terrorism with frequent breakdowns of law and order, bombing, killing, etc.
thus repelling foreign and domestic investment in the country.
4. We have a very low
level of natural resources like gas and oil and in case of gold, copper and coal
reserves. These are significant but remain unexplored for different reasons.
However, it should not be expected that the Reko Dig reserves will suddenly
make Pakistan Dubai or Saudi Arabia or Kuwait. If we are able to exploit them
and reserves estimates are accurate, they will add an estimated income of only
about Rs. 5000 per capita per year at present prices and population size for a
period of 25 years. However, these reserves must be exploited to the maximum
without delay.
5. Democratic form of
Government with freedom of speech and action in a market driven economy, poor, populous, rapidly
rising and semi-educated population and low level of natural resources does not
generally easily and quickly contribute to speed up the development process.
6. Independence
movement in the gas-rich province, Baluchistan, strains our limited resources
to control it. We are consuming our meagre resources where we should not.
7. Lack of harmony
and state of warlike conditions amongst various sects and sections of the
society, regions and provinces, etc. constitute major obstructions for smooth
progress. We are spending our limited income where we must avoid. You can
easily imagine the state of economy of a labourer who develops enmity with
someone, right or wrong, and consumes his scarce resources on litigation and
bribing the police, etc.
8. We have an
unmanageable, porous, lawless and ungovernable geographical landscape on a part
of the country, Afghanistan – Pakistan border. It is very unlikely that any
other country in the world will be having a border with such a violent and
medieval neighbour.
9. Largely semi and
uneducated religious leadership, who is hardly aware of the grim economic and
political, both national and international complexities, poses another stumbling
block in our development pace.
10. Pakistan is the 4th
largest importer of defence related equipment in the world – a highly
discreditable position for a country with one of the lowest per capita incomes
in the world.
11. About one third
population of the Country or about 60 million living below poverty level shows
that poverty elimination is going to be a huge challenge for a long time to
come. We have islands of prosperity in the sea of poverty.
12. Annual increase in
poverty ridden population estimated at about one million indicates that the
poverty alleviation will continue to be a gigantic task.
13. According to the
Multidimensional Poverty Index which measures the nature and intensity of the
poverty at the individual level in education, health and standard of living in
the world, Pakistan has been placed at 69th out of 103 poor countries of the
world which are home to 78% of the World’s people.
14. Pakistan ranks
amongst the top most countries in terms of death sentences (276) as against
1000s in China, 366 in Iraq, 269 Egypt and 105 in USA. The crime rate is still
quite high for reasons of impatience, easy and cheap availability of killing
weapons, illiteracy, inequalities, poverty, hunger, unemployment, etc.
15. With 2.55% of the
world’s population, Pakistan has a higher share of 3.86% of all poor people in
the world. It has 4th largest poor population in the world which indicates the
magnitude of the poverty elimination problem. We are still in the grip of vicious
cycle of poverty despite 64 years of independent life.
16. We are in grip of
vicious cycle of breakdown of law and order which results in lower investment,
lower growth rate, high corruption, fast inflation, increasing poverty and
lawlessness.
17. Roughly about 75%
of the households in Pakistan have neither a motor car nor motor cycle, which
means about 135 million people are either poor or population living below
poverty line. The prosperity we see on the roads, in the hotels, DHA, Gulberg,
etc. is all superficial and comprises of a microscopic minority of the
country’s population. The problems of the majority population of Pakistan are
simple food, electricity, employment and housing with little or no inflation.
It will be no ordinary achievement to provide three basic needs “Roti, Kapra
Aur Makan” with new additions of electricity and gas in a distant future.
18. Pakistan is not a
born geographically strategic state. The old superpower, Russia, attacked
Afghanistan to reach warm waters of the Arabian Sea with the result the freedom
fighters such as Osama Bin Ladin came to Afghanistan. Later these fighters
stayed in Afghanistan and managed to stage bombing of New York resulting in
making Pakistan geographical location of strategic value for the Americans in
its war in Afghanistan – a landlocked country. In this war on terror, the ratio
of casualties of USA and Pakistan is about 1 to 10. So it is sheer bad luck for
Pakistan to get involved in a war unnecessarily and becomes a country of
strategic importance for the US and other western countries which, in nutshell,
has added to its poverty, miseries, dependency, destruction, insecurity,
lawlessness, tension, anarchy, inefficient use of her resources, economic
stagnancy, steep fall in private investment, etc.
19. The country is
under pressure from all sides, both internal and external. The unity of the
nation is a must to meet these threats
which is missing. Political and religious parties are fiercely fighting one
another and so make the task of fighting poverty and terrorism extremely
difficult. We have frequent breakdown of law and order, mysterious
disappearance of people, extra judicial killings and murder of journalists,
etc.
20. According to the
Ministry of Population and Welfare, out of total 177 million population about
110 million population are poor or 6 out of 10 Pakistanis earn Rs. 170 or less
a day, an onerous responsibility for any government to pull them out of the
poverty.
21. The World Giving
Index ranks 153 countries according to how charitable their population is which
has been developed by the Charities Aid Foundation. Pakistan gets a very low
position at 142nd with only 20% population giving charity contrary to general
impression that Pakistan being a Muslim country and Zakat, a compulsory Islamic
requirement, we are a very generous nation as against Australia and New Zealand
on the top. It is obviously true when an overwhelming majority of Pakistanis is
poor or living below poverty line.
22. We have managed
to have only 1.5 million tax payers in the country in about 64 years out of
29-30 million households or nearly about 6%. A majority of them belongs to the
salaried class whereas we have about 7.6 million motor car and motor cycle
owners who belong to the high and middle income groups who could have been in
the tax net. So about 78% or 4 out of 5 are not paying any income tax. If only
the motor car owners are to considered to be worth to be tax payers, they are
3.0 million, a difference of 1.50 million. However, even if we
manage to bring half of them into the tax net i.e., 0.7 million, it will still
not be a panacea of our budget deficit as it is too huge as this is going to
add about Rs. 150 billion on the assumption of about Rs. 20000/new tax payer
per annum to the national exchequer.
23. No. of persons
per room of about 3 indicates the poor housing conditions in the country.
Overcoming current housing shortage is a long-term huge assignment for any
Government.
24. UNESCO’s Global
Monitoring Report 2011 says that one out of 3 children in Pakistan is not going
to school with about 25% of all illiterates in the world residing in Pakistan
as compared with its share in the world population of only about 2.55%.
25. The literacy rate
in Pakistan is 57% which is doubted to be not correct and requires huge
diversion of our limited resources toward full literacy, which does not appear
to be possible at present.
26. Gross per capita
income as low as $ 2609 of Pakistan at 121st position out of 168 countries in
the world indicates that we have to travel a long distance to be anywhere near
the developed world.
27. Our high level of
corruption at 36th top position out of 154 countries shows our gross moral
bankruptcy. According to another Index, called Corruption Perception Index
which relates to perceptions of the degree of corruption as seen by business
people and country analysts and ranges between 10 (highly clean) and 0 (highly
corrupt). It includes police corruption, business corruption,
political corruption, etc. Pakistan attains 145th position out of 159
countries. There is no poor
country in the world which has managed to eliminate or drastically reduce
corruption. In fact, the top 50 corruption clean countries are reasonably
prosperous and developed countries. Most of the countries which are amongst the
top corrupt countries are largely poor. Corruption is a part and parcel of the
poor economies. Most of the middle income countries also have medium level of
corruption. If the dream of making Pakistan corruption free is to be realised,
it will have to be economically developed first. There is a strong correlation
between corruption and poverty which go together. Let us start drastically
reducing poverty and develop Pakistan and corruption will accordingly go on
declining.
28. Despite the fact
that the Pakistan has the world’s largest irrigation system, our water
dependency to a large extent on an enemy neighbour, India, poses yet another
threat to our agricultural future. India releases its surplus river waters in
order to avoid floods in its areas and keeps water when it is short and also
when Pakistan desperately needs it. India also goes on building water dams in
violation of the Indus Waters Treaty and thus denies Pakistan of its legitimate
water share. There is hardly any
serious realisation in Pakistan that it is an issue of enormously crippling
implications for our economy. We are too much engaged in other issues and
non-issues having little or no time for such matters.
29. Natural
calamities like earthquakes and floods which have caused destruction of
billions of dollars in Pakistan are also unprecedented which place tremendous
burden on our limited resources. The UN ESCAP Report 2011 estimates losses of
natural occurrences of $2.4 million during 1990-95, $59 million during
1996-2000, $ 1.1 billion from 2001-2005 and $1.8 billion during 2006-10 which
show rising trend of cost of natural disasters thus seriously denting the
national economy.
30. We have more than
extraordinary and unusual share in world natural disasters during the past
decade in terms of material losses which should have been ideally in proportion
to its 2.5% share in world population, being 1 out of 193 countries, i.e., 0.5%
or 0.63% share in total world GDP, or in relation to its per capita income and
investment – both public and private. We are disproportionately unfortunate in
this respect for reasons best known to the Almighty Allah.
31. Flood devastation
in 2010 affected about 20 million people and less than 1.6 million houses were
damaged, two million hectares of standing crops destroyed, 300,000 cattle lost
and 25000 KM of roads destroyed and cost Rs. 850 billion which is almost twice
our development budget of 2010-11. The development budget is estimated at Rs.
730 billion in 2011-12 as against actual about Rs. 466 billion in 2010-11. This
is a colossal sum for a country like Pakistan.
32. The recent floods
in 2011 in Sind and elsewhere have affected nearly 9 million people and the
cost of rehabilitation of the flood affected people and reconstruction of
damaged infrastructure in different parts of the country range between $ 4-5
billion.
33. With only 6% of
total population possessing cars or one car per 90 persons as compared with one
car for two persons in UK shows that we have to go a long way to be a
prosperous nation.
34. High population
growth rate with an annual increase of about 3.5 million which is equivalent to
the total population of Kuwait or UAE or Libya or Ireland poses a tremendous
and baffling handicap in our development pursuit.
35. Tax evasion
culture as tax revenues contribute only 10% of GDP, which is one of the lowest
in the world, as against 18% India and 44% in Netherlands, is yet evidence of
our very high degree of moral degradation. Even some of our top political elite
of the country does not even have National Tax No. or even if they pay, the
amount is in peanuts vis-à-vis their living standards. Our Members of
Parliament should have been role models for promotion of tax culture in the
country. As we have failed to
develop tax culture or force people to pay their taxes during the last 64
years, will it be possible in future? No solution or answer appears to be in
sight to this billion dollar question.
36. Defence spending
is estimated at Rs. 442 billion in 2010-11 which is little less than the
development expenditure funds of Rs. 466 billion which indicates that the
country’s rapid economic growth is really not possible.
37. Its strategic
location with such neighbours as India and Afghanistan has placed Pakistan into
an extremely serious situation. Pakistan should have been located somewhere in
Europe, America or Australian continent, Far East or in the
oil rich area. Only our neighbourhood of China is, however, a positive point in
our geographical luck but we have failed to get maximum benefits from this fact.
38. Neighbours should
have been sources of strength and security and in our case, unfortunately, they
are unfortunate obstacles and nuisance. We can change our friends but unluckily
we can’t change our neighbours.
39. An international
Prosperity Index places Pakistan at 109th position out of 110 nations which
means we are striking low in the prosperity race.
40. Our past history
confirms that the change in Governments hardly contributes to improve the life
of a majority of our population because it is a mammoth job.
41. No state in the
world is facing multiple kinds of deficits: Fiscal, Governance, Peace, Trade,
Trust, Moral, Water, Electricity, Gas, Oil, CNG, Intelligence, Security and
Honesty, etc. With these deficits, the magnitude of development task becomes
stupendous.
42. The economy
desperately requires domestic peace for progress which is so critically lacking
as it is one of the top most dangerous nations in the World.
43. Our past one or
two decades’ history shows that new stumbling blocks have been added in our
development route rather than old ones should have gone. Our economic growth
flight is dangerously bumpy – both expected and unexpected – and it is not
likely to reach its destination or will be late by a period of decades.
44. Pakistan’s
economy is like a domestic maid who fails to upgrade her life and her future
remains poor despite the fact that she is sincere and works hard. She is born
poor, lives poor and dies poor.
45. By saying if
corruption could be eliminated in the society or if we manage to get sincere,
honest and competent political leadership or if we could exploit our natural
resources, the future of the country will be changed is an over simplification.
These are mighty “Ifs’ and are most unlikely to take place as our past history
does not deny.
46. Even the
revolution cannot change our fate. It is an ambiguous word and slogan. There
are no details of components of revolution required to turn around the economy.
Revolutions don’t produce results without local and foreign exchange resources,
domestic peace and leaders of exceptional merit and quality. Supposing it means
the Government will be run by the poor but they happen to be as corrupt as the
rich as the experience in Pakistan shows.
47. If the recent
trends are any guide, even load shedding of water should not be completely
ruled out in the near future. These are hard and terrible realities with
consequently extremely disastrous effect on our agriculture and industrial
production leading to seriously miserable and unmanageable life and the filthy
rich will not remain safe and will run away to foreign countries.
48. A true revolution
will require at least 500-1000 persons of extraordinary ability and honesty. It
is seriously doubtful that we shall manage to find them and put them together in
whole of Pakistan. The recent revolution in Egypt is a similar example of
failure.
49. In case of law
and order problem, no one is facing it of such magnitude as Pakistan is
confronting or has faced during its development journey which is so vital for
investment - a crucial condition for economic progress.
50. Our failure to
build Kalabagh Dam establishes that our fate is being sealed when all over the
world hydroelectric dams are being built. We are producing high cost
electricity instead of cheaper source of water dam.
51. The policies of
Iran, another neighbour, which happens to be oil rich are not conducive or
helpful for us to get any substantial benefit for our economy.
52. No currently
developed or fast developing economies have undergone development with Jihadis,
suicide bombers, terrorists, target killers, burning of buses, tyres, cars and
buildings and free and cheap availability of deadly arms. The country needs
elimination of “afra-tafri” or chaos which is causing extremely disastrous
effect on agricultural and industrial production on top priority basis.
53. A gun trotting,
lawless, crime-ridden, chaotic and corrupt society should not expect to
eliminate various economic and social evils in a short period in any case and
so prospects for economic breakthrough are a matter of distant future.
54. It is highly
amazing that the Bank of Punjab top management accepted over valuation of 105
properties worth Rs. 5.8 crore only for Rs. 1300 crore – 224 times higher than the
market cost. With this quality of our elite management, economic future in the
country should not be expected to be bright. Such a big daylight bank robbery
vis-à-vis bank’s financial resources cannot happen in any other country of the
world except through sheer deceit, deception, inhumanity, callousness and
heartlessness of the top Bank managers.
55. In a country
where our top most lawyers agree to defend a proven Bank of Punjab criminal of
billions of Rupees for sake of money shows our moral decline. A true patriot
under no circumstances and temptation would defend such a robber of public money
and no code of morality or any profession could allow this. Let all of us
realise that we are too poor to defend such inhuman robbers at any price/fee
whatsoever.
56. Pakistan is
surrounded by a large number of unparalleled anti-development hurdles – both
economic and non-economic – simultaneously which no developed nation or
emerging developed economies have ever confronted during their progress
history. We are adding additional hurdles in our economic roadmap and
insurgency is the latest addition which has already killed about 30000 persons
and 3500 soldiers including elite forces commandos during the last few years.
57. We must have lost
billions of Rupees in GDP over one man issue of Raymond Davis. We had far more
urgent issues to solve. In no other country of the world, so large
demonstrations would take place for the sake of keeping one person. It was a
colossal waste of national energy and time. We have many other issues of far
greater significance to concentrate and solve them.
58. In the Global
Peace Index Ranking, Pakistan’s position is one of the lowest at 145th amongst
149 nations. It will be a gigantic assignment to bring it amongst top 10-20
nations.
59. Daily strikes,
protests and violence over minor issues all over the country are causing huge
losses to the national economy. The frequent highway and road blockades must be
resulting, on monthly basis in foreign exchange, losses through petrol wastage of
millions of dollars besides billions of man-hours.
60. It appears that
there is neither any business nor any occupation for a majority of the
country’s population who is ready to come to road over issues which are not our
real and basic issues confronting the country. The country does not require
shutdowns and strikes on almost daily basis. They are further damaging a
crippling economy.
61. Pakistan’s
population estimated at about 180 million is more than half of the size of the
entire Arab population. It is the world’s 6th most populous country with 2.55%
share and in the year 2050, it is projected to become 5th most populous country
in the world with population of about 276 million. There is desperate need to
reduce population growth rate otherwise our economic future will not be bright.
62. Ease of Doing
Business Index developed by the World Bank which reflects simpler regulations
and protections for business ranks Pakistan at 85th position out of 183
countries. This shows that it is not easy to start business in Pakistan and
without private sector investment, there is
no possibility of economic prosperity in Pakistan.
63. The statements of
assets declared by our parliamentarians are sadly amazing. Many of them deserve
to be paid Zakat and “Khairat” for survival. In other cases, the assets of many
MPs have suddenly jumped significantly after being elected.
64. Striking income
equalities, growing unemployment and galloping inflation have contributed to
rapid growth of 3 Cs in the country: Crime, Corruption & Chaos and 5 Ts:
Tension, Troche, Tribulation, Terrorism, and Turmoil. Pakistan has, however, to
avoid another 2 Cs: Conflict and Confrontation, internally and externally.
65. In Pakistan, 38.3
million people lack access to safe drinking water and 50.7 million improved
sanitation. The task of providing clean water and sanitation to all is
obviously huge.
66. According to a
2006 World Bank Report, Pakistan will soon become a water scarce country.
Amongst the top 25 most populous countries, Pakistan has been listed amongst
the three most water limited nations. It is an issue of great importance and
requires priority attention.
67. According to a
United Nations ESCAP Report 2011, Pakistan has been placed amongst “water
hotspots” of Asia-Pacific region which is facing major threats of increasing
water scarcity, high water utilisation, deteriorating water quality and climate
change risk.
68. Pakistan is the
36th largest nation in the World in terms of area with the 2nd largest Muslim
population after Indonesia. It is the
27th largest economy in the terms of purchase power but it has the 7th largest
standing armed forces in the world. It should be clear from the data that the
Pakistan’s defence spending is not in proportion to its economy size.
69. The Global Hunger
Index 2009 has ranked Pakistan amongst the countries with alarming hunger
problem. The Global Hunger Index (GHI), which has been developed by the
International Food Policy Research Institute, ranks countries on a 100 point
scale – 0 being the best score (“no hunger”) and 100 being the worst. In
GHI-2010, Congo at 41 was ranked the worst. In 2010, Pakistan at 19 was
classified as “serious hunger”. Values between 20 and 30 were categorised as
“alarming” and 30 and above “extremely alarming”.
70. The Index of
Potential Unrest (IPU) is an attempt by The Atlantic to predict unrest in a
country. This Index is based on 8 variables: human capital, life satisfaction,
GDP, labour market, Internet access, freedom, tolerance and honesty in
elections. The IPU rates Pakistan as ‘high potential for unrest’ and groups
Pakistan with Egypt, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon and Syria. In fact this rating is not
accurate. The country is already in grip of grave chaos and tremendous unrest.
71. So far as the
health system is concerned, Pakistan stands at 122nd place out of 191
countries. Even Jamaica, Chile, Costa Rica, Egypt and Sri Lanka are way ahead
of us.
72. In respect of
foreign exchange reserves, Pakistan is ranked at 59th position with $16-17
billion as against $ 2622 billion of China, $1116 billion Japan, $301 billion India, $231 billion
Singapore, $ 107 billion Libya and Denmark $ 83 billion which shows our
precarious position.
73. Another index
titled “Greenest Countries – Most Liveable Places – 2008” places Pakistan at 115th
position out of 141 countries, which shows that Pakistan hardly enjoys position
of a country worth living.
74. The Environmental
Performance Index 2008, which measures performance with respect to
environmental friendly goals, ranks Pakistan at 124th position out of 148
countries with Yemen, Niger, Sudan, and Rwanda behind us.
75. As regards murder
rates, Pakistan is one of the top countries with 62.7 per 0.1 million
population with Myanmar, Sudan, Egypt and Japan amongst the lowest murder crime
rate countries (2000-2004). The latest data, if available, should show Pakistan
as the No. 1 in the world.
76. In terms of
National IQ Score, Pakistan does not get a high position and is placed at 23rd with
total 43 rankings.
77. The Global Gender
Gap Index Rankings 2008 which measures female participation, wage quality,
income levels, etc. puts Pakistan at 127th position out of 130countries which
will indicate the huge gender gap.
78. In respect of the
world’s most prestigious prize, the Noble Prize, Pakistan has so far won only
one in its 64 years’ history as against 305 USA, 106 UK, 79 France and India 4
which indicate Pakistan is nowhere.
79. Pakistan is
ranked at 116th out of 159 countries in case of electricity consumption per
capita (2004 data) – a major indicator of a country’s development status with
564 Kwh as against Norway 26657 and Canada 18408.
80. In 2008-09,
Pakistan was placed at 104th position out of 134 countries in Global
Competitive Index which is a comprehensive assessment of countries
competitiveness on the basis of various factors.
81. In case of patent
applications filed by Pakistan, its No is 93rd out of 193 countries in the
world with only 19 applications which throws light at our slow rate of
technological growth as against 500034 by Japan, 369073 USA and 203257 China.
82. The common view
about Pakistan that it is a heavily taxed country which is repudiated by the
available data of 68 countries survey called “Tax Burden”. The data shows that
Pakistan is one of the tax friendly countries ranking at 57th position out of
68 countries with France, China and Belgium amongst the top and so is confirmed
by a low tax – GDP ratio in Pakistan which needs to be raised substantially if
the dream of self-reliance is to be achieved.
83. The London
Economist Intelligence Unit has developed an index called Innovation Output
which is measured by the sum of patents granted by worlds’ three major patent
in Europe, Japan and USA. Pakistan has been ranked at 77th position out of 80
countries for which the data were calculated.
84. An index called
“Logistics Performance Index” has been developed which measures trade
performance logistics such as border clearance and quality of domestic transportation and
customs brokerage services. In this case, Pakistan stands at 110th position out
of 155 countries.
85. The “Forbes”
Magazine conducted a survey to rank the World’s Happiest Countries.
Surprisingly Pakistan is at 58th position out of 166 countries leaving behind
India and some developed countries. The respondents were asked to reflect
overall satisfaction with their lives and how they felt the previous day. The
possible reason of comparatively high ranking is Islamic teaching to remain
content and happy in all bad and good conditions.
86. The Globalisation
Index measures the extent to which the 60 largest countries in terms of GDP are
connected to the rest of the world. Pakistan gets 50th position amongst the 60
countries. Surprisingly, Russia and India are behind us in this case.
87. Data on
scientists and engineers engaged in research and development per million
population places Pakistan at 83rd position out of 86 countries reflecting so
low level of research efforts in Pakistan.
88. In the Higher
Education Sector, despite that Pakistan has made substantial progress, it is
still far behind other countries. For instance, access to higher education in
Pakistan is 5.1% as against India 12.2%. Pakistan has 132 universities with
enrolment of 1.1 million as against India 504 universities with enrolment of
15 million. India produces 8900 PhDs annually as against Pakistan which
produces 700 & China 50000.
89. Human Development
Index has been developed by the UNDP. According to UNDP Human Development Report, Pakistan’s
ranking comes to 136th with India at 128th and Norway 1st. it measures life
expectancy at birth, adult literacy and educational achievements etc.
90. The Technology
Achievement Index is calculated from creation of technology diffusions,
diffusion of recent and old innovations and human skills. In this Index, our
country has been placed at 61st position out of 67 countries.
91. The Economic
Freedom Index places Pakistan at 100th out of 156 countries with Hong Kong,
Singapore & Luxembourg on the top.
92. In terms of Foreign
Direct Investment, USA, UK and Hong Kong topped with $2093 billion, $1343
billion and $1184 billion respectively in 2010. Pakistan is placed at 62nd position.
FDI in Pakistan is only $1.57 billion 2010-11 and the difference between
Pakistan and other countries will be mind boggling on per capita basis.
93. As far as
internet users are concerned, Pakistan position is 138th out of 212 countries
with 106 users per 1000 population as against 922, 905 and 821 in Greenland,
Netherlands and Norway respectively. However, the latest data says that Pakistan
has been ranked 4th in the world with the highest Broadband growth.
94. Price of petrol
in Pakistan is determined by the international oil prices along with few
additional taxes. Hence its prices are nearly remaining the same as in other
countries in the world with much higher per capita income who are more
developed and prosperous than us. Our economy does not have the capacity to
keep the petrol prices in accordance with our per capita income or absorb the
impact of rise in international prices by providing subsidy.
95. Rise in prices of
petrol and electricity is inevitable and unavoidable to recover its actual cost
from the public as far as possible because the national exchequer has no
capacity to meet their subsidy cost which shows our economy is extremely
delicate. Despite raise in their prices from time to time, the total subsidies
still amounted to Rs. 166 billion in 2010-11.
96. Not a single poor
developing country in our conditions in the recent decades has become aid free
although its dependence may have reduced. Our economy has been in ICU for quite
some time and when the patient is in ICU, emergency attention and care is
required round the clock with plenty of cash resources in hand which are needed
to provide at the cost of other pressing requirements. So the top priority is
to bring the patient out of the ICU.
97. A drastic cut in
luxuries and ostentatious lifestyle enjoyed by the political and bureaucratic
elite of Pakistan along with the austerity measures could possibly bring a
maximum saving of not more than Rs. 1000 crore per year which is a negligible
sum or about 1.00% as compared with Government of Pakistan’s gap between its
earnings and spending of near about Rs. 90000 to 100000 crore. There should be
no doubt that there is extravagance and waste in our system of governance and
even its total elimination which is, however, not possible will have immediate
little impact because of gigantic gap between our income and expenditure.
98. There are about
2.5 million cases pending in the Pakistan courts. In Sind, by the end of June,
2011, 13712 civil cases, 7180 civil appeals, 6066 constitutional petitions and
4266 criminal cases were pending in the Sind High Court, or a total of 31764
cases are to be dealt with by only 18 Judges. In other words, a Judge has to
decide on average 1765 pending cases. If a judge decides on average one case in
a day, he is expected to decide the presently pending cases in about 6 to 7
years without taking into account new additional cases during this period.
Where the Justice system is dead slow, wonders in other sectors of the country
should not be expected.
99. We are passing
through a phase of 25 Ds: Dismal, Delicate, Dacoits, Denial, Despondency,
Disgusting, Dangerous, Derogatory, Disappointing, Disbelief, Distrust,
Degradation, Defamation, Difficult, Disturbing, Distressing, Depressing,
Destructive, Discouraging, Deplorable, Disastrous, Dejection, Declining,
Deprivation and Dependency. Economic future as a result in such a scenario is
another “D” i.e., Dark. Only an exceptional stroke of good luck could bring the
country out of the morass as our country also seriously lacks three important
“Ts”: Transparency, Truth and Trust and two Hs: Honesty and Hard Work.
100. Change in
regimes in a resource-poor country through popular uprising or democratic vote
hardly changes the economic status of a majority of the country’s population
with or without better governance and reduced corruption because the magnitude
of the problems is too big. Popular uprising at the maximum could change
governments only.
101. Although Pakistan
& India got independence in the same year and then Bangladesh got separated
from us in 1971, our Pak Rupee is weaker than the Indian Rupee by 88% and
Bangladesh Taka by 16%, yet another indicator of poor state of our economic
management for decades.
102. Pakistan’s
economic losses in the war against terror are estimated at about $68 billion or
Rs. 5037 billion whereas compensation gains through foreign grants are about
one fourth. With so huge difference between losses and gains, the task of
economic growth has surely become a mission impossible. Investment to GDP ratio
has declined from 22.5% in 2006-07 to 13.4% in 2010-11.
103. According to an
Ad in the Wall Street Journal, a major US newspaper, issued by the Govt. of
Pakistan, “Since 2001, a nation of 180 million has been fighting for the future
of world’s 7 billion. Since September 11, 2001, 21,672 Pakistanis have lost
their lives or have been seriously injured in the ongoing fight against
terrorism…. The Pakistan Army also has lost 2,795 soldiers while 8,671 soldiers
have been injured. There have been 3,486 bomb blasts and 283 major attacks in
the country. More than 3.5 million have been displaced while the country has
lost $68 billion due to terrorism. The Pakistani nation is making sacrifices that
statistics cannot reflect. Pakistan remains engaged in the war for world peace,
with 200,000 troops deployed at the frontline and 90,000 soldiers fighting on
the Afghan border.” As against Pakistan’s huge losses, the American losses are
insignificant – 2997 persons were killed which included
8 persons of Pakistan’s origin, 5 Israelis, 6 Bangladeshis, 41 Indians and 6
Japanese.
104. The US has one
9/11 in decades while Pakistan has a large number of 9/11s of greater or lesser
magnitude from time to time in the last few years.
105. There is no
instance in the world’s history that a country gets totally unnecessarily
involved in a so costly long war for which it has nothing to do and nothing to
gain. The 9/11 New York bombing has no Pakistani player. So another misfortune
for Pakistan and only God knows why. Pakistan has been involved in fighting a
War on Terror without any solid reason. It is an irony of fate that an American
Congressman calls Pakistan 3 Ds; Disloyal, Deceptive and Danger.
106. The strong
criticism against Pakistan Government for its failure to detect the Americans’
Abbotabad Operation is not fair because there is no match of technological
standards of the two countries. The Americans are far too superior to Pakistan
in technology. The Technology Index developed by the World Economic Forum
denotes the country’s technology readiness. In this Index, the United States is
the World’s No. 1 country as against Pakistan is ranked way behind at 84th position
out of 101 countries. It is clear who will win if there is a race between a
cycle and a Mercedes car.
107. The Failed
States Index has been developed which identifies a failed state with such
characteristics as having weak central government, non-provision of public
services, widespread corruption and crime etc. Out of 177 countries, Pakistan
is among the top 20 countries at 10th No. with Somalia, Chad, Sudan, Zimbabwe and Congo on
the top with characteristics of failing states.
108. Democracy with
an uneducated society and backward underdeveloped economy can’t deliver goods
quickly and in accordance with the needs of the economy and the people. If we
have to run this country like a West European democracy, then the wish of
becoming a fast moving economic nation is very difficult to realise.
109. We have prepared
a rare lethal cocktail of huge unemployment, inflation, crime, corruption,
strikes, terrorism and tax evasion which make the task of progress and
prosperity extremely difficult and long and it has not been prepared in any
other country of the world.
110. Let us not
further worse on our economic condition to a point of no return by refusing
foreign or American assistance. The present is simply the most inappropriate
time for various reasons to refuse foreign assistance. Rhetoric and populist
statements cannot pay the bill and fill up the growing budget deficit.
Self-reliance is a very noble objective but it is a long term and needs
extraordinarily careful and strategic planning and implementation.
111. It is often
commonly remarked in Pakistan about Pakistan: What a country! Only the Almighty
is running it! These remarks show that there is something seriously wrong with
Pakistan which makes the task of rapid growth a nearly impossible proposition.
112. It may be an
intelligence failure for Pakistan to locate Osama Bin Ladin while he was
residing in an Abbotabad colony for years. But how you can locate him with limited resources at
the disposal of intelligence agencies? It is simply impossible to search or
track about 25 million housing structures - large, medium, small and muddy -
spread over an area of 796096 KM2 all over the country. Overall financial and
physical constraints impose various serious kinds of hurdles for such
intelligence breakthrough.
113. Examples of
Iran, Libya and North Korea are neither relevant nor comparable with Pakistan
as their political, economic, social and other environments are entirely
different from Pakistan. Pakistan is in political, economic, military and
security quagmire at the same time at present and none of the above-referred
countries has ever been in our situation.
114. Pakistan is an
altogether different story. The current international environments are
different from the other developed and emerging economies, our economic issues
are not the same, standards of the bureaucracy are different, the justice
system is not comparable and role of religious leadership is significant, etc.
with the result, our problems, which are multiplying at a rapid pace, can possibly
be tackled only by a superhuman leadership.
115. Pakistan does
not possess a clean image worldwide regarding its anti-terrorism policy for
unknown reasons. Such an impression needs to be removed out. A foreign investor
will think twice before deciding to invest in Pakistan.
116. According to the
nuclear scientist, Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, “Never before in the 63 years
history, have there been such incompetent, incapable and hypocritical rulers.” It may be a
sweeping and subjective statement. We, however, cannot forget that this
government has come through a democratic process of free and fair elections.
What is then the alternate way of having government formation for good
governance? This poses yet another bewildering puzzle which is required to be
solved for rapid economic growth.
117. We have
individual success stories from rags to riches in Pakistan through sustained
hard work (and of course luck) but these are exceptions and in microscopic
minority. If the country has to achieve success and survive with honour and
dignity, the whole population will be required to work hard and have to be
productive which do not seem to be possible at present for a large variety of
factors.
118. Probably in no
other country in the world, you will see “Breaking News” which are in fact
“Heart Breaking News” on the TV Channels after every half hour of the day as we
happen to see the whole day on the Pakistani Channels. This indicates that the
country is in grip of serious turmoil and the chances of economic success are
real bleak.
119. There are
different secrets behind each of the recent countries’ success stories which
cannot be simply replicated in Pakistan. There will be a different set of tough
and hard policies to follow for Pakistan with regard to so large variety of
issues to place Pakistan on the success story road in order to reach the
victory stand because of our low level of natural resources, unfortunate
geographical location, huge population size, frequent terror attack, constant
external threats, low moral standards, indiscriminate target killing, high level of corruption
and tax evasion, dead slow system of justice etc.
120. Without
self-reliance, no nation should expect to have true self-respect and
sovereignty. Self-reliance is a prerequisite to ensure self-respect and
sovereignty. Let us for the present forget that Pakistan can be run as an
independent nation in true sense till the economy does not have to rely on
foreign assistance.
121. The Government
in Pakistan is the 2nd largest employer in the world which is not proportionate
to its share in world population or world GDP which results in excessive
expenditure and taxation to bear the salary bill.
122. The book
“Taliban Shuffle” by Kim Barker reveals a lot that Pakistan does not possess a
leadership who could match the challenge. Pakistan requires exemplary,
visionary, inspiring and motivating leadership as against rhetoric, deceptive
and selfish.
123. We cannot get
rid of US or foreign aid and IMF loans and if we just suddenly decline to accept
it, our economy will collapse and go deep down the drain with the petrol rising
to Rs. 150/ litar, load shedding reaching 12-16 hours in urban areas, dollar
rate crossing Rs. 150/$, Petrol, CNG holidays 3-5 days a week domestic
consumers to remain without gas for hours on daily basis, inflation rate sky
rocketing, foreign exchange reserves plunging to all time low and massive job
layoffs. Already it so happens that we have neither gas nor electricity in our
homes at times. Such a decision is not going to affect a few hundred families
or so but around 27 million households.
124. It is only a
complete lack of professional knowledge when it is said that Pakistan will
survive without foreign aid and loans by eating grass or only bread and pulses
or keeping hungry. We have not only to survive today but also have to achieve
sustained economic growth rate in future which is not possible without adequate
level of resources & investment. We are dependent upon critical imports
such as defence-related item, petroleum, oil for power plants, foreign
machinery, etc. which all require foreign exchange, whereas its low level
availability will result in their serious shortages and consequences. For
instance, Pakistan currently imports petrol and furnace oil etc. worth about
$12-14 billion per annum. A country which is already living from hand to mouth
will dangerously aggravate not only its present but also its future and will
further weaken its capability to meet the internal and external threats.
125. Ours is a “dung
tapao” economy (is run on day-to-day basis) critically dependent on foreign
assistance and bank borrowing for development irrespective of the form and
quality of governance. No economic wonders should be expected from such an
economy whether we are a part of the Afghan war or not.
126. Declining
foreign assistance / loan is a horrible option for the present and is viable
only when the country’s trade and fiscal deficits have been overcome. Pakistan
is far behind in achieving these goals. No country in the world with Pakistan’s
economic scenario has so far ever decided to do without foreign aid / loan.
Life is already expected to be very tough for most Pakistanis in the coming
years with foreign aid and without foreign aid, it would be still
further worse. A similar example is that of a daily wage earner with 6-member
family who resigns from the job with nil bank balance and loans to pay and does
not know how to make both ends meet next day with creditors knocking at his doors
for loan repayment. In this case, he is not in position to build any new
facilities or undertake construction of his new home. His simple survival has
become a very difficult job.
127. Pakistan has
historically been a slow motion economy, with GDP growth slightly higher than
population growth rate, on average or on the whole, since Independence with
foreign assistance / loan and without foreign aid, its growth rate is not
difficult to imagine and could be negative. In an already dead slow developing
economy, postponing work on new development projects is almost suicidal.
128. Our country is
largely resource poor and will have to depend upon foreign assistance as it
does not have critical inputs of development such as oil, gas, etc. while a few
available natural resources remain exploited for different reasons. Pakistan is
a sad, sorry, and sympathy case and it is another misfortune that US does not
fully appreciate it. The US and other developed countries should look at us
only with this angle.
129. Foreign
assistance / loan, home remittances of $12 billion and export of $ 24billion
have helped build our foreign exchange reserves and somewhat stabilised our
Rupee vis-à-vis other currencies. Reduction in either of these sources will
place Pakistan in a very difficult condition and no risk
whatsoever can be taken. The matter is of an immense priority.
130. Cutting
non-development expenditure is an important objective but imposing additional
taxation or banning new recruitment to meet the gap of foreign assistance is
not advisable as foreign assistance also brings in new technology, ideas,
expertise, education scholarships, etc.
131. The future of a
country should not be difficult to forecast when both the common man as well as
the top rich class is engaged in thefts of all kinds such as income tax, custom
duty, property tax, electricity, gas and water, etc. without any regard and
sympathy for the country.
132. Dependence of
foreign aid / loan is growing which indicates a grim state of the economy.
Pakistan’s per capita debt is one of the highest in the World at $322 as
against India $187 and Bangladesh $141. Pakistan foreign debt has grown to
$59.5 billion which has jumped by $3.6 billion in one year 2010-11 showing how
our economy is running.
133. There will be
catastrophic consequences, both political and economic, of foreign aid / loan
refusal as Pakistan could immediately become a foreign loan defaulter as she
has to pay back about $58 billion to foreign countries / agencies.
134. If we have to
become self-reliant and say goodbye to foreign aid / loans, it can’t be
achieved in a short period of time. The solution is to manage sustained GDP
growth rate of about 6-8% per annum for a period of about 20-25 years which
presently seems nearly impossible if our
past history is any guide. Foreign aid is a must and unavoidable at present not
for prosperity but for mere survival on day to day basis and to achieve some
growth rate.
135. Pakistan is a
born unlucky country as it has inherited serious diseases, problems or defects
at the time of its birth which have only worsened with the passage of time and
so the required treatment is a major surgery.
136. People have
grown old in Pakistan listening from their childhood that Pakistan is passing
through a critical phase of its history and today we again hear the same that
Pakistan is in grip of grim crisis never before its history. So our past and
present remain unchanged.
137. High sounding
empty and sentimental slogan of saving country’s sovereignty has no practical
value because this cannot be realised. No realistic blueprint has been proposed
regarding alternate sources of Rupee and foreign exchange funding and how the
economic sovereignty of the country will be attained. A minor reduction in
non-development budget is an eyewash and insufficient to meet the requirements.
Foreign assistance is a national / Federal Government subject and the
Provincial Government has a very limited role.
138. Issues facing
Pakistan are highly complex, inter linked, inter-connected and inter-dependent
upon one another covering wide spectrum of the economy, hardly ever confronted
by any other nation in the world so far and so require highly imaginative and
out of box strategies for their resolution.
139. The country is
in so serious crisis from all sides of all kinds that it was high time for
India to attack Pakistan to settle the Kashmir
issue once for all and it has not happened as we are a nuclear state, the only
silver lining on the horizon.
140. Pakistan has
seen no increase in gas production during the past many years but has the
undesirable distinction to top the list of countries in the world having the
maximum number of vehicles on CNG with 2.5 million vehicles (about 22% of the
total), yet another indicator of our energy mismanagement. CNG vehicles should
have been allowed in a country if there is substantial gas surplus, such as
Iran.
141. External
receipts were Rs. 387 billion in 2010-11 as against Rs. 440 billion estimate
for 2011-12 which means if there is no external assistance, Pakistan
development budget will reduce by 56%, a very serious matter. We have been
moving all along so far not towards self-reliance but moving away from
self-reliance.
142. Pakistanis are
generally a restless, law breaking, intolerant and impatient people (look at
their fast driving skills and traffic signals violations on the roads) but they
are certainly bold and courageous. Life continues as usual despite daily target
killings, bomb blasts, suicide attacks, parochial killing, etc. in some areas
of cities. Alarm bells are ringing and the panic button switched on in Pakistan
long ago. Such courageous and fearless approach of the people may have been
good in case of war but in the peace time, it is of little help in its
development.
143. On account of
9/11 attack, the US attack on Afghanistan has cost it $411 billion so far.
According to another estimate in
American weekly magazine “Time”, the total cost, direct and indirect of keeping
the US safe is $3228 billion. Had this money been spent on developments in
Pakistan and Afghanistan, they would have almost become Dubai.
144. There can be no
two opinions that we must break the begging bowl but before it is broken, it
must be filled up by us from our own resources and otherwise, we shall be
facing a very precarious future. A nearly collapsed economy cannot meet such
ideals and we must wait and fill up the bowel through our generated income before
deciding to break the bowel. For the present, we should accept the reality that
the beggars cannot be choosers.
145. “Rokhi Sokhi
Khain Gain” i.e., whatever is available, we shall eat it, shall help you to
pass your daily life but it does not in any way build your future. We should
not forget that a one-third of the country’s population is already living on
simple food. A similar example is that of a daily wage earner who somehow
survives with rotten and dry bread but has either a little or no money to
educate his children and provide them the required health care, housing and
other essential facilities so vital for their future growth. There is no
economic wisdom to further darken our future by postponing development projects
as a result of aid rejection.
146. Achieving
economic sovereignty by cutting down development budget is not a sound decision
making. Cutting development budget means construction of new schools,
hospitals, roads, bridges, etc. will be accordingly delayed or postponed to
future years whereas the country desperately requires them without delay. A
fragile economy cannot any more withstand additional shocks.
147. We are a country
which faces serious shortage of one item or the other all the time – one day
sugar, the next day Atta and the next day natural gas or CNG or petrol with
electricity load shedding almost a permanent feature and you cannot forecast
which is going to be the next one in this list. It would be difficult to trace
out a country in a similar state in the whole world.
148. The state of
affairs has gone so bad that the people have no choice but to spend or waste
their time waiting for electricity to return after load shedding, for CNG after
3 working days off, for petrol at the petrol pumps, for natural gas for domestic
cooking, at the railway station for trains coming or departing late and at the
airports for PIA flights which are not on schedule or being suspended etc.
149. Come what may,
there is no magic wand to resolve economic issues of the country overnight and
place it on the development highway instantly or in a matter of a few years
whereas presently it is walking on a broken pedestrian path of a city road. It
is a long and hard struggle in case even of high quality of the leadership
otherwise endless.
150. Tax evasion in
Pakistan is estimated at 79% which shows the tax gap between the potential and
actual tax collection. It is a huge level of tax dodging as well as decline in
growth rate of the economy which has further brought down the Tax-GDP ratio to 9.1%
in 2010-11. On the basis of the Tax-GDP ratio, Pakistan ranks 156th position
out of 180 countries according to the Heritage Foundation. When the
elite of the country is evading and avoiding tax payment, the self-reliance is
an elusive target.
151. Pakistan has the
highest rate of deforestation of 2.1% per annum in Asia, another alarming
information despite the fact that Pakistan is the proud world record holder of
planting 500,000 trees in one day
152. The country has
a huge 3.2 million Jobless youth which is contributing not only to crime growth
rate in the country but also place enormous burden on the national resources
for their nil contribution to the national output.
153. A Pakistani
day-to-day life is full of fear, insecurity, tension and anxiety. Most people
are getting poorer each day with declining quality of life. It is yet another
irony of our fate that the world and the US do not have a correct perspective
and sympathetic view of our condition. Instead of demanding “do more”, they
should do more for us as we are in pitiable conditions. Both the Al-Qaeda and
Taliban of Pakistan have failed to do any damage to USA and are releasing all
their venom on a poor helpless Pakistan after 9/11. The US is beyond their
reach anyway. At a cost of one or two suicide bombers, they inflict damage
worth millions of Rupees to our national assets.
154. The country has
failed to harness the enormous water released by floods. Of all the countries
in the world that are fiercely threatened by the climate change, Pakistan is
going to be one of the most important one, yet another sign of serious
challenges ahead.
155. Simple lifestyle
of the political elite sets example for rest of the nation to follow and in the
long term will result in increasing national sovereignty and reduce our
dependence on bank borrowing and external grants / loans. The present Uruguayan
President owns a 1987 Volkswagen car, does not have a bank account, does not
reside in the palatial Presidential Palace and donates a major part of his monthly
salary to charities. The former Prime Minister and the present Prime Minister
of India, Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh are known best examples of simple living.
Ahmadinejad, Iranian President, does not draw salary, brings his own breakfast,
his office is an ordinary room, refuses to use the Presidential aircraft and
travels in an ordinary flight and his hotel room is simple when away from
Tehran on official tour. Comparison with the Pakistan political elite in this
case is not possible.
156. Pakistan’s agricultural
crops per hectare yields are far behind those of the developing countries,
e.g., in 2005, wheat yield per hectare in Pakistan was 2586 Kgs as against 7465
Kgs in Germany and 6983 Kgs in France. In case of maize, Pakistan’s yield was
2848 Kgs as against 9266 Kgs in USA, 8245 Kgs in France and 9348 Kgs in Italy.
For rice, the output for China was 6266 Kgs, 9538 Kgs in Egypt and 7440 Kgs in
USA as against 2991 Kgs for Pakistan. Roughly, per hectare yields of different
crops in the agriculturally advanced / developed countries are about 2-3 times
higher than Pakistan.
157. Another
difference between Pakistan and the recently fast developing countries is in
respect of natural disasters which visit Pakistan more frequently and cause destructions in
Pakistan more seriously vis-à-vis its GDP and other resources.
158. If we have to
increase the crop yields to reach somewhere near the advanced countries, it is
absolutely necessary to ensure timely and adequate availability of water,
fertilisers, pesticides and better seeds along with use of modern farming
techniques for which our farmers require very high amount of funds which are
not available with them and cannot be made available to them through bank loans
and other sources.
159. Israel is an
example often quoted to be in a similar condition in Pakistan but that has
developed rapidly. It is ignored that Pakistan produces a population equivalent
to Israel’s present population in just a little over of two years’ period. Its
per capita foreign assistance is far more than Pakistan and it gets significant
level of defence protection from the United States. Israel is the largest
recipient of direct military assistance from the USA. Since 1987, the US has
provided an annual average of $1.8 billion in military assistance to Israel. In
economic aid, in term of per capita US grant, Israel has ranked first.
160. No country in
the world has so hostile neighbours as Pakistan has which has adversely affected
its development efforts. For instance, out of 193 countries in Europe,
Australia, Oceania, Asia and Africa, only 10 countries or only about 5% of the
total 193 countries in the world have hostility of minor nature such as China
& Taiwan, and South Korea & North Korea and of serious nature in case
of neighbours Pakistan & India, Israel and Palestine, and Libya, Iran &
Taliban of Afghanistan with a
superpower, thousands of miles away, while 183 countries have almost no
hostility or conflicts with each other and are enjoying blessings of peace
161. All the
countries which have developed fast in the recent decades did not have to
confront highly intensive multiple kinds of political, social, economic,
religious and moral issues etc. at the same time as Pakistan is facing. The
recent economic success stories with some differences are China, UAE, Malaysia,
Hong Kong, Chile, Brazil, Russia, South Korea, Taiwan, Venezuela (oil rich) and
Singapore and none of these countries confronted all these kinds of problems at
the same time and if at all, only a very few of these from time to time
162. Pakistan exports
of about $24 billion appears to be so insignificant as compared with other
countries such as China with $1506 billion, German $1337 billion, Japan $765
billion, South Korea $466 billion, Singapore $351 billion, Hong Kong $ 382
billion and Ireland $115 billion.
163. Even if we
manage to put together a team of economic wizards, political genius,
intelligence brains, social reformers and security specialists with proven
track record from different success stories such as from UAE, South Korea,
Brazil, Malaysia, Hong Kong, India and China, it is unlikely that they would
accept this complex assignment of rehabilitating, reforming and restoration of
our economy because of strong fear of failure. If they accept, formulation of
successful, result oriented, practicable and realistic policies keeping in view
Pakistan’s political, social, economic, moral and bureaucratic systems would be
an uphill task and they are very unlikely to
deliver goals. Although sector-wise appropriate and good policies could be
framed by the Pakistan specialists, the problem lies in their successful
execution.
164. Only the example
of South Korea is a little bit similar to Pakistan because it has a dispute
with its neighbour, North Korea, and it has allocated its substantial resources
towards military but there are much strong dissimilarities. Pakistan has fought
three wars with India. It does not have a savage and lawless neighbour like
Afghanistan. There is no porous border between South Korea and its other
neighbours. There is no independence movement in any region in South Korea.
South Koreans speak one language as against Pakistan which is a multilingual
society.
165. South Korea is a
gun free culture, there is no Bara Market and no conflict exists amongst
different classes of the society such as we have amongst different sects of
Islam, provinces or regions. A Korean is not allowed to keep a gun in his house
except for hunting purpose. When you want to hunt, you have to go to the police
station, check you gun out, hunt and return it the police station when you have
finished. So there can be no comparison with Pakistan with gun culture
difference so immense. It is a peaceful society with the crime and tax evasion
rate amongst the lowest in the world. In Pakistan even an Islamic Madrassa has
been found to be putting students in chains.
166. Due to South
Koreans splendid achievements, North Koreans defect to South Korea for better
future.
167. Another South
Korean secret of its amazing economic performance is its high education
standards. The South Korean kids study very hard day and night which explains
their world beating test scores. They study so hard that the Govt. has to
employ people to trace children who are studying after 10 PM. The students have
become addictive to private tuition academies after school hours. Even raids
are conducted to contain the country’s culture of educational masochism. At
both national and local levels, the Govt. is changing school testing and university
admission policies to reduce student tension. After a year of 14 hour days, the
students hope to get admission in the top 3 universities. A typical academic
schedule begins at 8 AM and ends between 10 pm to 1 AM depending upon the
student choice. According to a South Korean student, “All we do is study,
except when we sleep.” Pakistan is nowhere near the South Koreans in this
respect.
168. In 1949, the
South Korean population was 20 million which grew to only 49 million in 2010.
It has 0.71% of the world’s total population growing at a very slow rate of
0.23% per annum and inflation hovering around 2.5% to 4.7%. In comparison,
Pakistan’s population is 3.5 times more than South Korea with population growth
rate 8-9 times higher and inflation rate about 4 times higher. South Korea
initially promoted the import of raw materials and technology at the expense of
consumer goods and encouraged savings and investment over consumption, unlike
Pakistan.
169. In about 61
years, the Korean population has increased by 29 million whereas Pakistan
produces this number in about 8-9 years. With
so rapid growth of population, Pakistan’s comparison with South Korea becomes
unrelated.
170. Secrets of
success of South Korea are high priority to education, strong and capable
political leadership, work ethics, missionary zeal to work with diligent
labour, spirit to work with enthusiasm, unity and solidarity of the people
particularly in the time of need and emergency and impatient and hurried
approach for compressed industrialisation and super speed information
technology. Their peace attributes or policies cannot be injected in Pakistan
for one reason or the other. Our economy is not in a position to attach high
priority to education or our people can neither become workaholic nor forge
strong unity.
171. Iran is often
quoted as a worthy example for emulation for Pakistan for resisting the
American pressures. Iran’s example is neither relevant nor applicable nor
appropriate for Pakistan to follow. Despite having 3rd largest oil reserves,
and 8th biggest oil exporting country of the world, total exports of about $80
billion and a population of about 72 million. Iran’s ranking on per capita PPP
basis is 59th out of 166 countries, in Technology Achievement Index at 46th out
of 68 countries and Quality of Life Index at 114th out of 150 countries. It has
sadly failed to take full advantage of its natural gifts.
172. There can be no
comparison whatsoever between an oil importing and gas deficient Pakistan and
oil and gas surplus / exporting country Iran. Iran has a foreign trade surplus
of about $30 billion as against Pakistan’s deficit of about $15 billion. An oil
deficient country can’t follow the
policies of the oil rich Iran. Iran can afford confrontation with the Americans
or the Western world because it does not depend on their aid and loans and its
foreign exchange reserves are large enough to meet its long term requirements
but this confrontation is also already affecting its growth. Political or
physical confrontation with a more powerful country or countries damage
economic prospects of a country. It is extremely vital for any country, if it
has to grow rapidly, to avoid internal and external conflicts as far as
possible initially and later may opt for confrontation after it has developed
enough.
173. Based on average
6.58 members per family / household, the total No. of households is estimated
at 26.90 million in Pakistan. If each current tax payer is counted as a
household, then the total tax paying households are about 1.5 million, which
means only about 6% people are paying income tax in Pakistan. Pakistan’s
condition is similar to that of a bus which has broken down on the road and is
being physically pushed by 6 persons towards its destination who are bearing
burden of the other 94 passengers who are sitting idle in the bus. So this bus
is unlikely to reach its destination which is miles away.
174. People are
becoming psychic because of existing horrible state of life in Pakistan.
According to a survey, about 80% of residents of South and North Waziristan
Agencies have been affected mentally while 60% people of Peshawar are nearing
to become psychological patients.
175. What is worse
that is happening in Pakistan is that the weather too has become hostile and
more unpredictable because
of climate change and so oscillates between two extremes – drought and floods.
Both are very difficult to manage for a cash-starved country.
176. According to a
recent survey, 40% respondents do not save anything from their income while 34%
claim that they save 10% or less which show economic deprivation of our people.
177. Pakistan has the
highest number of refugees in the world, about 1.9 million out of 43.7 million
refugees, i.e., 4.34% of total. Iran and Syria follow Pakistan with 1.1 million
and 1.00 million respectively. So Pakistan has got yet another unfair share in
respect of world calamities as it has to provide shelter to a large number of
refugees despite the fact that both the economic opportunities and housing
facilities are extremely limited here. Pakistan has 710 refugees per GDP $ as
compared with 17 refugees for each GDP per capita in Germany. These refugees
are placing not only extraordinary burden on our national economy but also
contributing in growth of crime which other refugee hosting countries are not
facing, yet another kind of unique difficulties being faced by us. Introduction
of Kalashnikov culture is their gift to Pakistan. Besides, the quality of
refugees in Pakistan is very poor who are illiterate, uncivilised and brutal.
178. Massive bank
loan write-offs are another major scandal that has hit our fragile economy
which has not happened on such a large scale in any other country in the world.
179. Our elite has transferred
their assets and wealth as well as built huge bank balances in foreign
countries, which adversely affects our economy because the available funds are
not invested in the country to produce goods and services and create employment
opportunities. Although the estimates of such transfer differ, yet its share in
proportion to GDP should be amongst the highest in the world.
180. Presently, the
country is short of unity, love, affection, harmony and security. We lack peace
and justice. We have adulteration in food, medicines and mineral water.
Construction works in government funded projects or privately managed housing
schemes use substandard quality inputs and they are not of standard
specifications. So it will be an honest statement that we are living in
dishonest society.
181. Power losses are
nearly 20%, i.e., one out of five units produced is either lost or stolen
during transmission / distribution which is a huge sum for WAPDA which is
already facing financial crunch. Pakistan’s position is amongst the top 20
countries, that is, 70th in respect of total number of units lost during power
transmission / distribution according to 2004 data despite the fact that its
ranking in total power production in the world is low. The estimated losses
come to Rs. 71389 crore at average rate of Rs. 8/KWH in 2010.
182. Mobile phones
are seen everywhere in Pakistan and it is considered to be an indicator of
growing prosperity. Data available shows Pakistan’s position is very low in the
world, that is, 123rd out of 215 countries with 510 phones for 1000 population
as against 1709 for 1000 population in UAE, the top country.
183. There is
something seriously wrong with the democratic system of governance and its
election mechanism as far as Pakistan is concerned. Is it not amazing that the
same parties win by elections or other elections despite allegations of
corruption, inefficiency and mismanagement along with rising problems of the
common man such as load shedding, inflation, unemployment and security, etc.?
184. One strongly
held view is that with about 70% of the country’s population living in rural
areas and consequently their high share in the National / Provincial Assemblies
to determine majority, largely illiterate and living below or near poverty line,
the contestants manage to win the elections by spending more lavishly than
their opponents especially on “Pulao ki Degain” (big dishes of chicken with
rice) for their voters for a few weeks before the election date, backed by Bradries and Thana influence irrespective of their party affiliations or the
performance of their government or their own capability, competency, or
character. If this assessment is largely accurate, then this country requires
some other form of democracy to bring honest and dedicated leadership.
185. In computer
language, our country has been hit by virus and has become corrupt and will
require reinstallation of windows in order to make this country fast forward
moving nation, and the window installation takes considerable time.
186. In order to
develop rapidly, it is of permanent important that our cost of production of
industrial and agriculture goods, especially exportable items, remains low or
competitive which is extremely difficult because of high cost of
electric power due to our reliance on oil-based power generation, fast
deprivation of the Pak Rupee, largely inefficient labor force, and high cost of
local raw material, etc.
187. Another index
called Composite Index of National Capability represents demographic, economic
and military strength. Pakistan surprisingly scores very high at 12th out of
193 countries because of her high population level and defence strength.
188. The Child
Development Index is an index combining performance measures specific to
children – education, health and nutrition – to work out a score from 0 which
is the best to 100 which is the worst. Pakistan gets 48.46 score with position
at 119th out of 143 countries.
189. According to the
Satisfaction with Life Index which measures subjective wellbeing with health,
wealth and access to basic education, Pakistan earns one of the lowest
positions at 166th out of 178 countries with Denmark, Switzerland and Austria
as the top 3 nations.
190. Pakistan is a
multilingual country with more than 60 languages being spoken which is not
helpful for national integration and unity.
191. 80% of the world’s soccer balls are produced in Pakistan but
Pakistan’s world ranking in football stands at 170th position for the simple
reason that the game is largely dominated by rich countries.
192. A widely held
public opinion of Pakistani political elite, whether ruling or in the
opposition, which does not appear to be very wrong is that its only objectives
are to either remain in power or get power somehow and make money as quickly
as possible and as much as it can. If there is conflict between national and
personal interests, the latter one will be preferred and as a result, however,
if there is some development takes place in the country, it is only a
by-product.
193. There is in fact
no match between the quantum and severity of variety of problems and issues
being faced by our country and competency, stature, caliber and sincerity of
top political, business and bureaucratic class to tackle them. The gap between
these two is not bridgeable.
194. A nation’s
geographical location is not of its own choice, just as the birth of a person.
If you are born in a poor country, your fate is more likely to be already
determined to remain poor. Similar is the case and fate of Pakistan which is
born poor with a hostile geography and limited resources.
195. If we have to
save Sindh from floods, it is a must to build dams as 31 MAF of water are going
downstream Kotri every year against requirement of 8.6 MAF. It is estimated
that the price of 1MAF is US$ 2 billion which means roughly about $50 – 60
billion worth water is being wasted or thrown into the sea every year. But
again we have the same problems that we are failing to make full utilisation of
whatever domestic resource is available – a major failure on the part of our
political leadership – both past and present.
196. The recent
floods have caused immense damage to our economy. According to the National
Disaster Management Authority, the floods have affected 6.616 million acres of
land, 8.188 million people and 1.926 million farm areas,
damaged 1.496 million houses and killed 78457 cattle. In order to accommodate
the affected population estimated at 625293, 2938 relief camps were set up.
197. When the country
is surrounded by enemies – inside and outside – all out determined to weaken
Pakistan, along with political leadership fiercely fighting each other, the
role of Pakistan Army becomes inevitable and crucial in order to keep the
country intact and acts as the last word on issues of critical significance. As
a consequence, it is said that Pakistan is not a country with Army but Pakistan
is an Army with a country.
198. A common man’s
life has become extremely difficult in Pakistan and that is why it is often
said that if you wish to survive in Pakistan, you must have two Ps: Power &
Prosperity or two Cs: Cash & Connections.
199. It is both
gloomy and strange that two of Pakistan’s neighbours – China and India – are on
the fast growth track whereas Pakistan is off the track. Bringing Pakistan on
the fast road track seems to be a wishful thinking as at now because of
innumerable tough barriers it is facing.
200. As compared with
the dismal picture of Pakistan, the African Continent has started developing
rapidly. Africa’s GDP grew @ 4.9% a year from 2000 to 2009, more than twice the
rate in the previous two decades. Due to surge in growth, the Africans best and
brightest youth are leaving the West and returning home, something entirely
reverse in case of Pakistan.
201. Pakistan share
in world GDP on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) basis is 0.63% in 2009, according
to IMF, as against its share in
world’s population of about 2.55% and at current prices is forecasted to be
0.64% in 2015 showing significant gap between our population and GDP share in
the world.
202. Another evidence
of intolerant society is that Pakistan has the dubious distinction of topping
in the number of killing of journalists in the world in the last few years.
203. Pakistan is
probably the only country in the world in which private jails exist even in 21st
Century. A website search on the subject has failed to find the existence of
such inhuman privately managed jails anywhere in the world, yet another
regrettable distinction for Pakistan. This shows the quality of our law and
order enforcement system.
204. The overall
political, economic and social climate is such that it will not be wrong to
state that Pakistan is being run by 4 As: Allah, America, Army and Anarchy.
205. According to
Asian Development Bank Report titled “Asia 2050 – Realising the Asian Century”
the per capita income of India is projected to grow to $41700 in 2050 as
against $ 7900 for Pakistan, i.e., about 5.28 times higher. Such a scenario
could have catastrophic consequences for Pakistan and it will be difficult for
Pakistan to maintain its independence and integrity. It is an alarming
scenario. To match India, Pakistan has no choice but to enhance its growth rate
@ 8-10% per annum for next 40 years which at present seems an impossible
proposition.
206. Pakistan is
likely to be the only country in the world which has been going through one
crisis to another incessantly from time to time such as; drone attacks, target killing,
targeting bus passengers, burning oil tankers, suicide attacks on GHQ and Naval
Base, Raymond Davis, Osama Bin Ladin Operation, frequent flood destructions,
boys’ lynching, Ranger’s killing, Haqqani’s Network, cross border attacks,
bombing of schools, kidnapping of children and elite, corruption horror
stories, murder of Journalist Saleem Shehzad, Dr. Zulifqar Mirza’s outbursts
against MQM, sectarian killing, money extortions, Memo-gate, President’s illness
and NATO’s attack etc. Had the US been in our place, the Americans would have
gone into coma.
207. A Pakistani is
presently going through a nightmarish life as he fears or could face any moment
assassination, kidnapping for ransom or bargaining, death by suicide bombing,
target killing, random or indiscriminating killing, bomb blasts, honour
murders, dowry killing, hand grenade throwing, ethnic and political opponents
killing, cross border attacks, remote control bombing and drone attacks, gang
rape, blasphemy accusation, floods, extortions, mobile, jewellery or cash
snatching, road robbery, car theft, etc. and there is definitely no other
nation in the world which will be facing such multiple kinds of fears and
threats and these have severe impact on our economic growth potential. In
Lahore, the crime rate has gone up by about 16% in one year, 2011. It will
require a research study to identify any other source of killing of innocent
people which is not under execution in Pakistan at present except through sea
piracy, earthquake and floods.
208. Due to frequent
natural disasters, the international and domestic response and donations for
the assistance of the effected
population have significantly declined as we have seen during the 2011 floods.
209. Arrival of
Dengue is another natural calamity which has probably not attacked any other
country of the world on such a large scale despite many of them are having
summer and rainy seasons, filthy streets, dirty water ponds, etc. and is eating
our already scarce resources. It is nothing short of another misfortune for the
country.
210. Pakistan has
been ranked 3rd on the basis of cultural, tribal and religious practices
harmful to women according to a global survey of Thomas Reuters Foundation.
These include acid attacks, child and forced marriage and punishment or
retribution by stoning or other physical abuse.
211. Another survey
reveals that Pakistan is amongst the top states in respect of dowry murders,
honour killings and early marriages. Even the daughters / sisters are denied
share in inheritance although the Government has passed a new law to punish
those people violating this Islamic injunction.
212. It will not be
again easy to find a country in the whole world whose major public sector
corporations are in so critical financial crisis along with their serious
inefficient system and crumbling infrastructure / assets as Pakistan has in the
case of Pakistan Railways, Pakistan International Airlines, Pakistan Steel
Mills, WAPDA, etc. whose losses run into several billions of Rupees every year
with the Govt. having no option but to bail them out. Rs. 1000 billion have
been given by the Govt. to the state enterprises – PEPCO, LESCO, Railways,
Trading Corporation of Pakistan, Pakistan Steel and PIA to keep them operational
during the period 2007-2011 and they are still not out of woods.
213. Pakistan is
probably the only nation of the world whose political leaders allow surplus
river waters to go into the sea rather than utilising it for desperately needed
irrigation and power generation systems through hydroelectric dams although
every country has higher and lower riparian areas.
214. Most common
opinion held by Pakistanis is that Pakistan has tremendous and enormous
potential and talent to grow as it has a large land area, 4 seasons, 180 million
population, beautiful tourist places, sea side, river waters, coal, copper,
gold, etc. and other natural resources is not really valid. Pakistan is not a
natural resource rich country vis-à-vis its population size along with a large
No. of severe problems by and large and whatever it has, these can’t be fully
exploited because of various obstacles, constraints and reasons which can’t be
easily surmountable as the past history shows. Most developing and poor
countries in the world have also got a lot of potential and resources but they
have remained poor for centuries and are likely to remain so in the foreseeable
future. A poor man’s child is also brilliant but his potential remains
unexplored because of lack of funds to exploit the potential.
215. The size,
dimension, degree, intensity and range of the problem facing Pakistan are too
complicated, complex, diverse and demanding to be tackled by ordinary means or
minds.
216. Anti-American
sermons, slogans, rhetoric, steps or stance can only worsen our condition. See
the decline in Pak Rupee vs US$
soon after we decided to take some tough measures against the Americans. The
decline has extremely dire and far reaching implications for our economy.
Defence of the Pak Rupee is no less important than the defence of the borders.
217. Hurting the
American interests should not be the focus of our foreign policy. Our primary
concern and objective should only be to avoid depreciation of the Pak Rupee
which although does not affect the top elite of Pakistan because they have the
absorption capacity to meet rise in prices.
218. Some politicians
are of the view that Pakistan can get rid of the American aid by bringing back
the Pakistanis’ wealth accumulated in foreign countries. It is simply
impossible to force people to bring their assets / funds to Pakistan. No such
precedent exists in the history of the world. Moreover, our fiscal and foreign
exchange deficits are too gigantic to be plugged by such transfers, even if
made possible.
219. During the last
8 years, 2002-10, the Americans have provided nearly $19 billion aid or Rs.
150000 crore or that is on average of $2.25 billion or Rs. 18000 crore which is
a huge sum for Pakistan. About 75% of this aid has gone for military purposes
which is as crucially required as for economic development. So the American
assistance has been received for military or economy to meet our requirements
otherwise additional resource generation would have been required to meet the
gap.
220. Only about 10-15
countries out of some 200 countries have gone on to become emergent, fast
developing, near developed or
advanced or prosperous during the last 40-50 years for different reasons, while
an overwhelming majority of nations is strolling on the footpath of the
development highway.
221. Pakistan cannot
be disintegrated or any of its provinces can’t get separation because such
successful independence movement requires not only strong external political
support but also funding and some kind of armed invasion through a ground
assault by a neighbouring enemy country. In case of Baluchistan, it has no
common border with India while Iran has close relations with Pakistan and
Afghanistan is too weak a country to undertake such an adventure with Pakistan.
There is no such movement in other three provinces of Pakistan.
222. Pakistan will,
however, survive as an independent state simply because no country in the world
could be interested in taking it over as it is an unmanageable, turbulent,
restless, intolerant and extremist society besides we have a strong army with
nuclear arms to keep its independence and common religion, a binding force
against foreign countries and the era of making colonies is long gone.
So, in view of the
above hard, grim, alarming, painful, critical, intricate and undeniable
realities which are simultaneously in existence, even an honest, incorruptible,
sincere and capable political leadership ALONE, elected through democratic
system of Government and with fair and free general elections process, however,
could only make a marginal difference in the life of a majority of population
of the country in a foreseeable future and the dream of its
becoming a welfare,
progressive and vibrant state will remain a dream.
The following
miracles are, however, successfully required to occur in Pakistan
simultaneously to change her fate:
(I) We have an
extremely sincere, spotless, dynamic patriotic, selfless, committed, competent,
energetic, dedicated, strong and incorruptible political leadership,
(II) We get permanent
domestic peace, and make Pakistan a gun free country
(III) We manage to
discover and quickly exploit known and unexpected vast natural resources,
(IV) A political
leadership who sets personal examples of complete austerity, sacrifices and
simple living and shuns ostentatious life style for the whole nation to follow,
(V) Pakistanis
holding their assets and wealth in foreign countries bring them back to
Pakistan,
(VI) As Pakistan is a
poor economy, it must lead a poor life initially to save, produce and invest
for at least a decade in order to eliminate fiscal and trade deficits and thus
ensure rapid growth in future,
(VII) Disputes with
India are settled,
(VIII) A serious and
determined campaign is successfully launched to ensure elimination of crime and
corruption, etc. without any discrimination whatsoever,
(IX) Moral
reawakening of the political, business and bureaucratic elite is also a basic
requirement to be met so that they pay their tax dues honestly,
(X) Pakistan will
have to become a nation of workaholics like Japan, and
(XI) The Almighty
imposes a ban on frequent visits of natural disasters / calamities to Pakistan
for at least a period of next 50 years.
As a result of above,
other problems like low morality level, lack of investment, fiscal and trade
deficit, tax evasion, unemployment, etc. will be tackled. There is no easy ride
in a country facing turmoil and upheavals of different varieties. Our minimum
immediate goal, under all circumstances and whatever the cost may be, is to
avoid turning Pakistan into a pariah state and banana republic.
The world’s history
confirms that so many miracles hardly occur and no reason exists to expect and
reach conclusion that Pakistan could be an exception. So the solution to
Pakistan’s problems appears to be largely beyond human competence and ingenuity
at least at present.
No wonder, Pakistan’s
today is worse than yesterday but better than tomorrow. However, we as a nation
must not lose hope of better days in future and continue to explore ways and
means to achieve economic breakthrough as soon as possible.
To sum up, the only
basic purpose of this book is not to propagate despondency and despair about
our future but to make people aware that the country is facing economic problems of enormous
dimensions and we all should realise it and start taking selfless measures to
place it on the road of progress and prosperity.
